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The Journal, October 2026 Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Phoenix Metro and the Surrounding Valley
Brad Kimmelman
Brad Kimmelman, Hômanity Team

The fall market rewards realism.

Fall is traditionally one of Arizona's most active real estate seasons. Seasonal residents return, buyers become more focused and sellers begin asking whether this is the right time to make a move.

The short answer? There is opportunity, but this market rewards realism.

Across Scottsdale, Paradise Valley and Greater Phoenix, homes are selling and values are holding. Buyers, however, have choices. They are taking their time, comparing properties carefully and expecting the price to reflect a home's condition, location and quality.

The market is not frozen. It is discerning.

Brad KimmelmanRuss Lyon Sotheby's International Realty

Fall 2026 Market Scorecard

How Scottsdale, Paradise Valley and Greater Phoenix are performing this fall, and what it means if you are buying or selling.

Scottsdale

Resilient, but Price-Sensitive

Scottsdale continues to perform well, with its median sale price rising 9.1% from last year to $949,000. Sales activity has also increased, and homes are spending a median of 58 days on the market.

With 3.6 months of inventory, buyers have choices, but sellers still have an opportunity to attract serious interest. On average, homes are selling approximately 3.6% below asking price.

That does not mean every seller should expect a discount. Properties that are thoughtfully prepared, beautifully presented and accurately priced from the beginning are still getting attention. Those that reach too high often spend months accumulating market time and eventually chase the market downward.

Paradise Valley

A Market of Its Own

Paradise Valley continues to operate differently from the rest of the Valley. The median sale price is approximately $3.7 million, the average exceeds $4.7 million and homes are selling for approximately $818 per square foot.

With 5.5 months of inventory, the market is balanced. Buyers at this level are deliberate, highly informed and unwilling to compromise on architecture, views, privacy or finish quality.

Exceptional properties can still command premium prices. When a home requires extensive updating or deferred maintenance, buyers are calculating those costs and reflecting them in their offers.

Greater Phoenix

Stable and Negotiable

Across Greater Phoenix, the median sale price is holding near $450,000, essentially unchanged from last year. Inventory stands at approximately 3.8 months, creating a balanced market with opportunity on both sides.

The larger story is financing. More than half of recent sales included some form of seller concession, averaging approximately $11,400. Buyers are frequently using those funds for closing costs or mortgage-rate buydowns, while sellers are using flexibility to make their homes more competitive.

More than half of recent Greater Phoenix sales included a seller concession, averaging about $11,400.

For Sellers

Protect Your First 30 Days

This is not the moment to “test the market.” Buyers are studying recent comparable sales, and a home's first few weeks remain its best opportunity to make a strong impression.

Preparation, presentation and accurate pricing are the most effective tools a seller has to protect both time and equity. A home does not need to be completely renovated, but its price must make sense for its current condition.

For Buyers

Leverage Without the Frenzy

Fall inventory offers more choices without the bidding wars and emotional pressure of recent years. Depending on the property and price point, buyers may be able to negotiate the price, request repairs or secure seller funds toward closing costs or a mortgage-rate buydown.

The advantage is not simply paying less. It is having the breathing room to make a thoughtful, long-term decision about the right home.

Based on Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service data for the six-month period ending September 25, 2026, compared with the same period in 2025.

There is no single “Phoenix market.”

Conditions can change dramatically between cities, communities, price ranges and even neighboring homes.

The people who do best this fall will understand the market they are actually in, approach it with realistic expectations and make decisions based on their lives rather than waiting for a mythical perfect moment.

Curious about your home's value, a particular neighborhood or how today's market could affect your next move?

Ask Brad anything

Where We're Eating

Three tables worth pulling up a chair to this month, from a morning pastry stop to a Southern Italian dinner.

Pastry case and coffee bar at Ollie Vaughn's in PhoenixPhoenix

Scratch bakery & cafe

Ollie Vaughn's

Owner Lindsey Magee serves scratch-made pastries and artisanal sandwiches in a warm, welcoming Phoenix neighborhood cafe. Freshly baked breads, thoughtful ingredients and a cozy courtyard patio make it the ultimate morning stop.

Pull up a chair
Dining room at Uchi ScottsdaleOld Town Scottsdale

Japanese sushi & tasting menus

Uchi Scottsdale

James Beard Award-winning chef Tyson Cole brings his acclaimed non-traditional Japanese sushi and signature tasting menus to Old Town Scottsdale. Innovative flavor pairings, delicate raw selections and sleek, modern design make it a standout destination for elevated dining.

Experience the craft
Patio dining at Vic & Ola's in DC RanchNorth Scottsdale

Southern Italian & Mediterranean

Vic & Ola's

The rich, vibrant flavors of Southern Italy and the Mediterranean coast come to North Scottsdale's DC Ranch. Scratch-made pastas, fresh seafood and a warm, stylish ambiance make it an inviting spot for both intimate dinners and lively gatherings.

Pass the pasta

Valley Happenings

Cooler evenings bring the Valley back outside. A few ways to celebrate, explore and reconnect this month.

Dancers with rainbow streamers in the Phoenix Pride parade
17–18October

Steele Indian School Park, Phoenix

Phoenix Pride Festival

A two-day celebration featuring 150+ live performances across seven stages, 300 exhibitors, food vendors and the annual Sunday parade.

Show your pride
Crowd gathered beneath a canopy at FORM Arcosanti
9–11October

Arcosanti, Mayer

FORM Arcosanti

An intimate micro-festival at Paolo Soleri's desert eco-city featuring non-overlapping music sets, immersive art installations, cliffside pool parties and camping.

Experience FORM
Midway rides and lights at the Arizona State Fair
Oct 1–Nov 1Fairgrounds open select days

Arizona State Fairgrounds, Phoenix

Arizona State Fair

A classic Phoenix tradition featuring thrilling carnival rides, iconic deep-fried fair eats, livestock showcases and headline arena concerts.

Feel the wonder

Hômes Worth Knowing

Hand-selected Hômanity properties for October.

Covered terrace and dining area at 5000 N Camelback Ridge Drive, Unit 208

Camelback Mountain

5000 N Camelback Ridge Drive

Unit 208

$3,195,000

Sophisticated lock-and-leave living at the base of Camelback Mountain. Expansive glass, 10-foot ceilings and warm contemporary finishes frame city, desert, golf and mountain views, complemented by guard-gated privacy and effortless Phoenician access.

Make It Yours
Front of 548 and 550 W San Juan Avenue, Phoenix

Central Phoenix

548 & 550 W San Juan Avenue

$699,000

Two private two-bedroom homes, separate fenced yards and no HOA. A rare option for multigenerational living, an owner-occupant seeking rental income or a flexible Central Phoenix investment.

Make It Yours

Humanity Starts at Hôme

Home is where life happens. Sometimes that means buying or selling. Sometimes it means making the place you have work better. Often, it simply means having someone you trust when a question arises.

That is what I want Hômanity to be for you: a trusted source for real estate, thoughtful guidance and genuine connection.

If we can help you or someone you care about, we are here.

With gratitude, Brad Kimmelman

Brad Kimmelman

Brad Kimmelman

Hômanity Team, Russ Lyon Sotheby's International Realty

Hômanity: Humanity Starts at Home

Wherever life takes you, you don't have to navigate your next move alone. Through our trusted relationships with exceptional real estate advisors in markets around the world, we can connect you with the right local expert and remain a trusted resource throughout your journey.